07 July 2014

INFY - Medium Term View

18th Nov

The medium term outlook as envisaged in the end July post proved right and the stock is now heading for target above 4550 in short term.

Near term outlook looks like this.

A 5 wave ABCDE pattern.
Wave 'c' (Yellow lables) likely to end near 4280 completing Wave 'C' of larger degree. Thereafter we can expect a corrective move to complete Wave 'D' followed by Wave 'E' till the target area.

A 5 wave impulse.
Alternate count (Blue lables) is an impulse sub-wave 3 of 5 and it has one target which matches the target of previuos count ie near 4280 but it may also extend till 4377 and then correct for sub 4. But it does not look possible for this count to reach near 4550 without some extension of wave 5.

Daily chart




20th July

As specified in the previous post a move above 3410 would require that alternate Bullish count be considered and the stock did violate that level. So I would consider there is more bullish outlook for Medium term. However the counts suggest it may still give quite muted moves for some time till Golden cross at 3486 is successfully breached and the stock sustains that level.

Near Term View
The current count as shown in the chart is not decisive in Near term as the stock is not revealing the real intentions. Under the circumstances the best strategy is to wait for confirmation. The confirmation that it wants to do full correction to 3100 should come below 3228. Till then it would be a bullish case for next higher level near 3450.






7th July

There is a strong possibility that INFY has completed its corrective wave B up-move at 50% retracement level of wave A (3850-2880) and should now start its final Wave C down move. The Wave C down can take it down all the way below recent low.

There is a remote possibility that it may see 3385/3403 to complete its lower degree a=c or 5th of c/B. The count invalidates above 3410 and would consider alternate Bullish count if invalidated.

Here is the chart of hourly time frame with the counts.



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