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Note : Source unconfirmed.
Indian Stocks Technical Picks, Tips and Index analysis Blog

NIFTY has been moving in an upward channel since Nov 09 and has regularly zigzagged within the channel. Though it failed to reach the channel upper line and started retracing. Curiously it started the retracement when DOW was still roaring. Now with the EURO-pian woes it has continued the downward journey.
It is now approaching the channel bottom support around 4830-4850 and is expected to bounce back from there. In the unlikely event of this level being broken the next support comes almost 100 pts below at 4730-4740 but if the 4830 is broken it would mean breaking the channel and therefore the next up move in medium term would be muted. This looks an unlikely scenario as all the right ingredient of a strong bull market are visible in our market.
There is a similar support in SENSEX around 16020-16050 which in fact combines the channel support as well as July '09 high and therefore more meaningful. Strong buying should emerge with a bounce from this level.
Not withstanding which support it takes, the Market is now entering an excellent Medium to Long term Buy zone.

SENSEX has been moving up almost in a straight line since last correction before the budget. However it now needs to cool off as the short term RSI has moved above overbought zone and it is very close to strong resistance at 17,790 and new results season round the corner. If, however, it attempts to cross the resistance in this run itself it could mean the bulls want to setup bull trap by moving slightly above the resistance and then correcting mildly. The medium term target for the index is around 18,300 where it could look downwards. While the index cools off or goes for consolidation the small and mid cap stocks would have a field day and a link for our top small stock picks is given below.


SENSEX has nearly touched previous medium term high (Aug '08 and May '09) and was inches away from much publicized 200 day moving average, before arresting the correction yesterday ie 8th Feb and made a bullish long legged doji followed by firm up move with higher high today indicating that the correction could now be over. This was further confirmed by various indicators by moving up from oversold zone to very close to short covering zone. In fact some stocks have already seen some short covering. Whether the the sensex can still go down? - not likely, can it stabilize at these levels - no but a mild broad-based short covering rally seems a certainty. It would not be surprising to see the index cruising to 17000 around the budget time.
N.B.
Please download list of stocks which have made initial move after correction and are likely to continue the move. It is believed that the first movers are the most reliable bullish stocks for medium term. Also included are short to medium term targets and support levels.
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