Jun 30, 2009
SENSEX momentum / support line is around 14150-14200 and only break below this support could lead to continuation of the corrective phase and show levels around 13700 and 13500. The possibility of break below the support line is not very bright as the market has lots of expectations from the big event the"budget" and today's reversal could best be explained as risk aversion selling should the budget have some negative surprises.
This stock has been outperforming sensex since March and has moved out of correction pretty smartly. Now it is around the high price before correction of 145 attempting to breakout. The stock is a good buy around 135-145 for medium term targets of
TARGET 1 = 165
TARGET 2 = 195
This stock has been outperforming sensex by miles since March and has moved out of correction pretty swiftly. Now it is hinging around the high price before correction of 378 attempting to breakout. The stock is a good buy around 350-375 for medium term targets of
- TARGET 1 = 440
- TARGET 2 = 520
Jun 25, 2009
Yesterday (23rd) SENSEX gave first sign of bottoming the correction by breaking out of RSI resistance line but still the RSI had not inched up but today it not only moved up but the index made higher high, higher low and higher close. Technically this is a very bullish sign. Now it must cross 14670 and close above it for the index to confirm the reversal. Longs can be safely initiated thereafter.
Jun 24, 2009
Top performing Indian stocks with lot of upside left for long term investment. These are the performers which can turn many/multibaggers. Also included are short and medium term targets and of course the stops.
CLICK HERE to view/download.
Over the past five quarters between January 2008 and March 2009, 48-year-old Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio of publicly traded stocks, of firms in which he owns at least a 1% stake, has underperformed the benchmark index. His portfolio had dropped at least 60% in value, according to data from exchanges, while the Bombay Stock Exchange’s (BSE’s) benchmark equity index Sensex dropped around 52% over the same period.
The Sensex has climbed back about 45% since, while Jhunjhunwala’s concentrated portfolio, which has largely been kept undisturbed, gained only about 15% over the same period.
Jhunjhunwala, the founder of proprietary trading firm Rare Enterprises—named using the first two letters of his and his wife Rekha’s names—twice declined to speak for this story. Most of his portfolio picks are held under this firm, by himself and in the name of his wife.
The most visible, albeit minor, changes made by Jhunjhunwala to his portfolio indicate a trend towards defensive sectors. He purchased an additional 0.65 million shares in software firm Geometric Ltd, where he now owns a 7.27% stake, and 0.3 million shares of Agro Tech Foods Ltd, in which he held a 7.8% stake at the end of December. He also purchased 0.17 million shares of Karur Vysya Bank Ltd and 0.13 million shares of drug maker Lupin Ltd.
On the other hand, he has cut his exposure to Hindustan Oil Exploration Co. Ltd, selling 1.4 million shares during the quarter ended March. Jhunjhunwala also sold about one million shares of Hyderabad-based Nagarjuna Construction Co. Ltd. He reduced the ownership in Pantaloon Retail (India) Ltd by 0.43 million shares and in Titan Industries Ltd by 0.12 million shares. Apart from large investments in a concentrated portfolio and smaller investments in a larger portfolio of listed firms, Jhunjhunwala owns sizeable chunks of equity in several closely held entities through his private equity and venture capital- style investments.
According to data published at the end of December, he owned at least a 1% stake in 31 firms, valued at about Rs1,466 crore.
And at the end of March, he owned at least 1% in 27 companies traded on BSE that declared their latest shareholding details. Some of his portfolio stocks, including the pharmaceutical services provider Bilcare Ltd, pharma firm Zenotech Laboratories Ltd, publisher Infomedia 18 Ltd and water treatment firm Ion Exchange India Ltd, are yet to update shareholding details.
Jhunjhunwala’s holdings in at least a dozen non-listed entities include the 16% stake in Diwan Rahul Nanda’s Tops Security Ltd, New Delhi-based A2Z Maintenance and Engineering Services Pvt. Ltd, Dharti Dredging and Infrastructure Ltd, Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Pvt. Ltd, Maneesh Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Nandan Biometrix Ltd and Concord Biotech Ltd, among others.
To be sure, Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio consists mainly of mid-cap stocks while the Sensex is composed of large caps.
And, despite the beating his portfolio has taken during the downturn, people who have worked with this whisky and cigar aficionado vouch for the soundness of his overall strategy.
“He has tonnes of patience and the temperament that makes him a rare stock market investor,” says Alok Agarwal, a Mumbai-based funds adviser who owns at least 2% in Aptech Ltd, a venture he started to provide computer education. At the end of March, the Jhujhunwalas held a 31.7% controlling stake in Aptech, valued at around Rs123 crore.
It is this so-called temperament that, starting with Rs5,000 in 1985 when the Sensex was trading at 150—on Friday it closed at 11,876.43—has allowed him to achieve almost cult status with investors in a country where only 3% of the 1.2 billion population invests in equity markets.
His investment strategy, followed closely by many individual investors, involves maintaining a steady portfolio of stocks with a long-term view while committing smaller amounts to the high-beta activity of equity trading such as day trading that tends to be highly volatile.
NB: Please check out the latest update. Link given below
Jun 22, 2009
This stock is very interesting from technical analysis view for following reasons
- It has made an inverse Head & Shoulder pattern indicating its bullish intentions.
- It attempted to breakout with huge volumes from a med term falling resistance line, But unfortunately it attempted on a day when the sensex tanked nearly 500 pts. and it had to retrace in line with the broader market.
- It has made several attempts to breakout of the highest close of last 20 sessions.
It should breakout sometime this week and head for 95-100 in short term. The level to enter the stock is above 83 with a stop of 74. Though the stock is headed much higher in medium term.
SENSEX has been showing weakness after reaching resistance around 15580 and is very volatile with negative bias in short term.
There are two ways to trade this market.
1 Go long around support zone and keep strict stop loss. But this does not guarantee upmove and one does not know when the market will pick up momentum.
2. A safer way is to enter long once the SENSEX breaks the resistance and look for the next higher target. This is not only safer but there is fair degree of certainty and lesser time horizon
Jun 18, 2009
CASTROL brokeout hugely from an ascending triangle pattern with high volumes. Moreover it brokeout on a day when the SENSEX dropped nearly 500 points and all the other biggies were running for covers. The stock looks very bullish for medim to long term. It would be a good buy around 340 to 360 for target above 500. For more details please click on the chart.
Jun 16, 2009
After knocking at the resistance at 15580 twice the index has started showing some fatigue and has been dwindling. The important support levels are 14800 and 14500 and one can be reasonably sure that if it breaks below 14500, although unlikely, the consolidation turns into correction.
Jun 11, 2009
SENSEX retraces exactly from 15580 as we mentioned in our previous post "15000............". It is also stalling and likely to go for consolidation/congestion before making an attempt at breaking out to higher levels. The consolidation usually comes with a doze of high volatility for the bulls to prove their mantle and move past the resistance. All fresh moves for A group now only after the breakout but the mid and small caps should move where the valuations are still attractive. It is still not a market which could be shorted because though the momentum weakens, even slightest discount will get bought. It would need a convincing breakout with huge turnover for the SENSEX to confirm further upmove. Logic would suggest it should wait for the next big trigger "the budget" for the breakout but one never knows because the sheer momentum could do it much before that if a good trigger is around.
Jun 3, 2009
After a sharp run up a little lull has every one start suspecting whether the markets would reverse the course. The market has always behaved like this ie stalling at such psychological resistance especially after a sharp rally and looking for new trigger. It should take only one close above the 15000 mark for it to resume the move. The next technical stop is not very far at 15580 where it could rest little longer.
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